Afghanistan Taliban rulers are unlikely to stop their support for militants in Pakistan as they feel the country’s deteriorating economic conditions prevent Islamabad from launching a major military operation against Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), said a report by a leading US think tank.
The report by the US Institute of Peace (USIP)comes amid a resurgence of terrorism in the country.
Earlier, a blast in Peshawar inside a mosque in a police compound claimed the lives of more than 60 people. Banned Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan claimed responsibility for one of the deadliest blasts in the city. Last month a police station in Peshawar was also targeted, resulting in three deaths. Meanwhile, the day after the deadly Peshawar attack, Punjab police thwarted an attack on a police station in Mianwali.
The report further stated that the Afghan Taliban are very supportive of the TTP and are providing the group with a permissive safe haven.
“The TTP also has a lot of popular support in Afghanistan, where both Taliban and non-Taliban constituencies get behind the TTP due to a fervent dislike for Pakistan,” the report said.
The report added that Afghan Taliban are supportive of TTP because they have a consensus that the Pakistani system is “un-Islamic” so there are a number of Taliban fighters joining the TTP.
The report said the Afghan Taliban are unlikely to shift their narrative that is openly supportive of TTP. This was evident from their rhetoric after the Peshawar blast as they did not openly condemn the attack and entirely put the blame on elements within Pakistan.
However, the report said, the Taliban in Afghanistan understands the importance of diplomatic ties, therefore, moving forward their posture will likely appear like a tug-of-war, alternating between moments of tension and de-escalation.
Regarding Pakistan’s response to the TTP’s resurgence, the report said: “after downplaying the TTP’s strength as well as the Taliban’s influence on and relationship with TTP for several years, Pakistani leaders now seem to be contending with the depth of Taliban support for the TTP. Yet Pakistani officials still seem to be searching for a deal — ideally a cease-fire arrangement — through the Taliban.”
“The military and intelligence leadership, as well as officials at the Foreign Ministry, appear to want to work with the Taliban, viewing it as more favorable than the former republic government — which is indicated by Pakistan continuously asking the international community to engage the Taliban. But the Taliban’s uncompromising commitment to the TTP means that Pakistan has to either ignore the violence or concede to the TTP to maintain a relationship with the Taliban,” the report added.
It also said the deteriorating economy also limits the country’s military response to the threat posed by TTP.
